The Ask
With cultural research create a forecast of what will be hot in 5 years. The report will be the culmination of your findings, research, and predictions of current or soon-to-happen innovation in technology, travel, leisure, health, and wellness, etc. to forecast an upcoming trend. Rather than targeting specific trends in the fields of apparel and fashion, this report allows you to look at the world at large and see what trends, products and/or services will be at mass acceptance in 5 years and why, based on today’s zeitgeist and 9 key drivers.
What is Zeitgeist?
The feelings a person gets from current events which can also be referred to as the “Spirit of the time”.
What are the 9 Key Drivers?
1) Economy
Trend indicators like interest, inflation, unemployment rates, and disposable income impact consumer's ability to spend money. Affects fashion directly as retail sales suffer and stores/manufacturers are forced out of business.
2) Technology
Advancements in avenues including communications and instant access to information affect how consumers learn about buying options and where/when they shop.
3) Globalization
Increased exposure to other cultures coupled with free trade agreements which affect consumer tastes for the new and exotic, impacts where/how they shop.
4) Governments
Government actions that are often a result of legislation as well as activities such as increases or decreases in taxes and benefits that affect consumers' ability to spend and their incentives to purchase.
5) Environment
Trends that show heightened consumer awareness of environmental issues and abuses including all threats to safety that impact what consumers will buy.
6) Demographics
Changes that impact who buys and changing tastes which are affected by generational cohorts and life stages.
7) Consumer Psyche
What is our psyche when we shop relating to psychographics.
8) Health and Wellness
Trends in relation to health and wellness concerning products, services, or specific ingredients that will be in demand by consumers.
9) Retailing
The way retail is conducted (department stores vs. small boutiques, internet vs. brick and mortar) affects consumer mood and incentive to buy.
Cultural Forecast: Food Luxury
After seeing an article published by Taste Cooking in August 2023 titled Pistachios Are Quiet Luxury discussing the ways that pistachios had become a status symbol in the food industry, I started to wonder about what this meant in a bigger conversation. Pistachios became a societal indicator with their prices in 2023 being around $18 for a shelled pound, $9 for a carton of Táche pistachio milk, or $22 for a jar of pistachio cream imported from Italy.
Forecasted by Jaden Rivera, Alysa Benson, Lillie Pritchard, and Azzur Pickett
The Current Zeitgeist:
The zeitgeist in Fall 2023 is a time of hyper-awareness. People are exposed to many different kinds of people from all over the world through social media. This causes insecurities in consumers and makes them want to model their lives after the people they see on social media who have ‘perfect lives’. Inflation and supply chain issues have also impacted the way consumers spend as it has made shoppers weary. There are still items that act as class markers causing consumers to spend on their wants rather than their needs, some consumer groups want to look better off than they are. They do this by buying luxury items that are targeted towards them (flashy items or items clearly showing a brand's logo). Quiet luxury has been a rising trend acting as a marker to show who has made it in the world, eliminating the consumers who are easily impressionable by ostentatious showings of wealth.
What is Food Luxury?
Quiet Luxury has been used as a term to describe the action of buying high-quality, expensive, and minimalist products to subtly flaunt wealth. Our prediction focuses on a subcategory of quiet luxury that’s been growing in popularity. This subcategory is food luxury, which has been gaining popularity. Food luxury is essentially buying specialty items that are not in everyone’s fridge or pantry due to prohibitors like cost and inventory. Some examples are pistachios, sushi, caviar, and even avocados. Having the ability to constantly view other peoples’ lives through social media feeds into the insecurity people feel when they see a certain lifestyle that they don’t have. As a result, when people become more aware of what they don’t have in their life, this causes them to seek out products that make them feel more “perfect”, like the people they see on social media. A big product category that goes into this need for a “perfect” and healthy lifestyle is food. We’ve all seen those “What I Eat in a Day” videos, and it seems as though everyone has these simple, yet glamorous recipes that have ingredients that are both aesthetically pleasing and healthy. More often than not, when viewers of these videos try and go buy these ingredients, they are high priced and borderline unattainable. So, having these certain food products on display in your home, social media posts, or even on your lunch break is a subtle way to show off your wealth.
Research on Food Luxury:
Inflation and Food Prices:
The Food Institute published an article in May of 2023 detailing how most Americans consider healthy food a luxury. A survey conducted by Credello involving 1,000 consumers ages 18-54 resulted in 29.7% of consumers feeling that they cannot afford healthy foods despite them being important. Following the same survey, 61.5% called healthy food a luxury, with inflation, these consumers are not mistaken as prices increased by 11.3% on average in the U.S. between January 2022 and 2023. The cost of a healthy diet is around $1.50 more per day than eating an unhealthy diet, adding up to an extra $550 for the year to give perspective, With ongoing inflation, these increased prices for organic, healthy foods make it easier for wealthy people to have their desired lifestyle, while people with mid to lower incomes are stuck with only hoping they can afford these “luxurious” healthy foods.
Natural Disasters and Growth Patterns:
Consistent natural disasters and their rising occurrence have caused an interruption in growth patterns which appears to be persistent. This is evident in India where prices of staple foods like onions and tomatoes have risen to record highs with tomatoes at twice their usual prices and onions one and a half times more expensive than normal. In India, there was heavy rainfall in the 2023 monsoon season with severe flooding followed by record-low rains in August, affecting agriculture. The rising frequency of natural disasters as a result of climate change and population growth is reflected worldwide in food prices. Inflation in food around the world remains high with inflation for food exceeding 81% of the 162 countries accessible by the World Bank. Despite the U.S Department of Agriculture’s food price outlook and historical data which was relatively positive, all food prices are predicted to increase in 2024 by 2.3% (with an interval of -2.6% to 7.3%). This increase would be lower than the 2023 prediction of 5.8% (with an interval of 5.4% to 6.2%). The outlook for 2024 prices having a higher interval prediction allows for food prices to continue to rise, making it harder for lower and middle classes to afford staple items and necessities.
Food Trends:
Food trends have continued to cycle through social media as it has become a powerful aspect of digital marketing and globalization. Restaurants innovate food trends as they experiment with new items and flavors on small scales which then get spread through word of mouth and media, leading to them spreading to other restaurants. When one restaurant has a menu item that is doing well, other restaurants will add it to their menu and it then leads to the everyday person wanting to have it at home. There are also trade shows that showcase different foods from around the world. Here vendors might show an upcoming item that is not yet on the market. If other restaurants see this and think this might be the newest trend they might create their version of this food item or find a way to incorporate it into their dish. In the end, it comes down to the consumer to push it to become a trend.
Key Drivers:
Consumer Psyche:
The consumer psyche in the case of our food luxury trend, is how consumers with low wealth and a high need for status will carry on spending more to mimic those who have their desired status level. This lifestyle of subtle luxury that has been spreading on social media and integrating itself into the food realm will continue to affect the spending of consumers. Some brands have already been taking advantage of this specific consumer need by using this upcoming trend of food luxury and creating certain foods that are associated with wealth and luxury. For example, the well-known chip company, Pringles recently collaborated with The Caviar Co. brand. This collaboration involves a full food kit that includes one ounce of Smoked Trout Roe, one ounce of Creme Fraiche, a small can of Sour Cream and Onion Pringles, and one Caviar Tin Key. Consumers can buy this kit for $49. These two brands used the celebrity influence of the Real Housewives of New York and created this kit as a reference to drama that occurred on the show, which consumers who watch the show will recognize and be more inclined to purchase the kit.
Technology:
The leading driver, technology, affecting food luxury is rather broad. Touching on aspects like Social Media apps which become driving forces in consumerism with grocery hauls on TikTok and #foodtok, bringing cooking shows to your phone. More innovative technological advancements are Just Walk Out technologies which use a mix of cameras, sensors in shelves, and AI using both generative AI and computer vision. These are used to make shopping experiences more seamless for the shoppers themselves as well as for the retailers while facing staffing shortages. With innovation in the food industry through sectors of manufacturing alternative meat products and producing a green future, technology opens the door to a wide array of advancements. The Bio Revolution is technological advances in life and biological sciences utilized to transform the economy through innovation with engineering to create biology-sourced materials. This revolution is a big player in the innovation of crops with Bayers ‘Short Corn’ which utilizes genetic engineering to make shorter stalks so there is less crop loss, reduced usage of the land, and more precise use of inputs similar to crop protection or fertilizers. With the farm-to-table movement still going steady, there is a group of consumers who need to have advancements in the way what they consume impacts the world and the innovation of the bio revolution is imperative for this consumer.